Strategic foresight in CGIAR : Agriculture & Food Systems to 2050

13 November 2018. Seattle, United States. University of Washington. Foresight @CGIAR One-day pre-SC-7 event on horizon scanning and foresight in CGIAR 

• DOWNLOAD WORKSHOP REPORT
• DOWNLOAD AGENDA
• DOWNLOAD BRIEF 'AGRICULTURE & FOOD SYSTEMS TO 2050'
• DOWNLOAD BOOK FLYER 'AGRICULTURE & FOOD SYSTEMS TO 2050'

The aim of this event was to inform the development of a process for strategic foresight in CGIAR drawing on the outcomes of the two foresight workshops—specifically, the reflections related to key drivers of change and trends that will influence the agri-food system.

Objectives

• Synthesize results of ISPC foresight exercise on drivers of change and future trends affecting the global agri-food systems, and their implications for CGIAR research agenda.
• Consider options for the development of future Independent Science and Development Council (ISDC) work on foresight and horizon scanning.

The book Agriculture and Food Systems to 2050 (World Scientific, published 20 November 2018, 678 pages) was launched during the event. 

• This book features a comprehensive foresight assessment, exploring the pressures — threats as well as opportunities — on the global agriculture & food systems between now and 2050.
• Pdfs of individual chapters are also available on the Publisher website
• The overarching aim of this book is to help readers understand the context, by analyzing global trends and anticipating change for better planning and constructing pathways from the present to the future by focusing on the right questions and problems. 
• The book contextualizes the role of international agricultural research in addressing the complex challenges posed by UN 2030 Agenda and beyond, and identifies the decisions that scientific leaders, donors and policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more combined with rising incomes and changing diets can be fed sustainably and equitably, in the face of the growing climate threats.

Presentations

Session 1. Introduction - Synthesis of IPSC Foresight

• Synthesis of the ISPC foresight initiative (Prabhu Pingali, Cornell University/ISPC and Rachid Serraj (see picture), ISPC Secretariat)
• Towards a framework for CGIAR foresight (Keith Wiebe, IFPRI; Philip Thornton, CCAFS & Leslie Lipper, ISPC Secretariat ) 

Panel 1: International Ag Research 4 Development – The changing roles

• Background paper: Leigh Anderson (UW) - CGIAR and alternative providers of research
• Raj Paroda (India) – Role of Asian national programs
• Nighisty Ghezae (IFS/ ISPC) – Role of African national programs
• Pedro L.O. de Almeida Machado (EMBRAPA) – View from Brazil/LAM

Panel 2: A new green revolution without mineral fertilizer? New pathways towards sustainable intensification

• Eileen McLellan (EDF) – Nitrogen scenarios
• Tom Bruulsema (IPNI) – Phosphorus scenarios
• Dana Cornell (University of Technology Sydney) - Future Phosphorus Pathways
• Ken Cassman (University of Nebraska) – Resource-use efficiency and the yield gap
• Ruth DeFries (Columbia University) [remotely] – Natural resources and sustainable development 

Panel 3: Disruptive technologies & innovation; Leapfrogging for development – opportunities for CGIAR?

• Patrick van der Duin (STT) – Disruptive technology in agriculture
• Bruce Friedrich (Good Food Institute) – Futures of food systems
• Jonathan Wadsworth (World Bank) – Leapfrogging for development in S.S. Africa

Interactive session

• Cards for interactive session