Climate and energy futures: Africa's path forward

10 April 2024. Climate and energy futures: Africa's path forward
Attend via webcast by Institute for Security Studies (ISS) with AUDA-NEPA

This seminar examined Africa's climate and energy futures, shedding light on various scenarios, including the consequences of a global carbon tax and aggressive energy policies, and the transformative effects of transitioning to sustainable practices. It discussed two new reports that examine Africa’s development prospects if countries adopt sustainable energy policies. 

• Moderator: Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, Head, Special Projects, ISS
• Panelists: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS
• Alize le Roux, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS
• Saliem Fakir, Executive Director, African Climate Foundation
• Prof Abubakar Sambo, Chairman, Nigerian Member Committee of the World Energy Council

Resources

AFI (2024) Africa’s Climate Future #34 p. 

The implementation of differentiated carbon taxes and the pursuit of the Sustainable Africa scenario could offer a path to significant emission reductions and improved economic outcomes. However, the success of these measures is contingent on the continued exploitation of gas resources to avoid energy and financial crises. Africa needs to prioritise adaptation if it wants to ensure the safety of communities and infrastructure amidst the ongoing climate crises.

AFI (2024) Africa’s Energy Future #41 p.

Africa is experiencing a growing addiction to gas and oil. Yet, in 2023, Africa produced only 6.6% of world energy, which would increase to 8.1% in 2050 - a portion vastly out of balance with its large and growing population and development needs. Energy demand, however, in Africa is less than 5% of the world. The difference between production and demand reflects that the continent has abundant energy resources but exports a significant portion. According to the Climate Action Tracker, around 40% of Africa’s gas production is exported, primarily to Europe, China and India whilst again importing refined products.

The Africa Energy Policy scenario examines the ramifications of diminishing coal and oil production without limiting gas. The analysis indicates that constraints on gas production would create an unmanageable energy production shortfall for a continent still with very low levels of energy availability. The scenario includes various mitigation efforts and the expansion in renewables, hydro, and nuclear power needed to bridge the remaining energy demand gap. The scenario also incorporates carbon sequestration and enhanced energy efficiency measures to gauge their impact on carbon emissions.